Monday, July 27, 2009

Mexican Spices

A long time ago, my sister and I were at a baseball playoff game with our great friend A. A and I sat on either side of my sister and were in deep conversation about how the game was progressing and how the players were performing. We thought T was also in on the conversation—merely listening at the moment—and would join in at any moment with her own assessment of things. But when she did pipe up—right in the middle of the conversation—she wistfully said only, “Man, those taquitos were good.” Obviously, she had been so lost in good-taquito-land that she had not even known that we were having a conversation—one we thought she was actively participating in.

I was reminded of this story yesterday as we drove to church. It was pretty much the biggest Sunday of the year for us. B had a talk to give, E was being blessed, and we had a friend coming to church (in honor of both E’s blessing and B’s talk) who had never attended our church before. I normally abhor being late, and on this particular Sunday, being late was simply out of the question. We had to be there to meet our friend, be on time for the blessing (which happens at the beginning of the meeting), get B seated on the stand, and, oh yes, in time for B to ask the people he would like to be involved in the blessing if they will participate. Nothing like the last second… In any case, we MUST arrive early.

Nevertheless, we found ourselves leaving the house 12 minutes behind my intended departure time. As we pulled out of the driveway and headed through the neighborhood, B was waxing poetic about—of all things—the burrito he had in his hand. Specifically, the tortilla, if you must know. That’s right, it’s just SO STRONG. He can eat the burrito without fear of spilling on his Sunday clothes. He needs no protection. Isn’t it divine? I suppose after a lifetime of inferior tortillas, it is a joy to find one that lives up to the measure of its creation.

Well, I’m nervous about the time issue and remark that our 15mph Sunday pace will not help matters. So, we speed up to normal speed and get on the highway. Halfway to church, after the glorious burrito has been consumed, B panics: “Did you bring my scriptures??????” [Why would I bring his scriptures?] “No, but don’t worry, you can use mine.” “But my TALK is in my scriptures!” You have to know B to understand just how awful this is. The first time he was asked to speak in church after his tour of duty in Afghanistan, he was worried about it for a whole week, to the point of being physically ill. He admitted that he was more afraid of speaking in church than of Ak-47 fire. He admits it’s irrational, and dutifully speaks when asked, writing out his talk word for word. There is absolutely no possibility for “winging it.”

Well, we could NOT turn around (our poor friend would have been left high and dry, plus B wouldn’t have been able to talk to the people who he wanted to help with the blessing, plus we probably wouldn’t make it in time for the blessing to take place anyway…). So, we decided to split up. B got out on the highway to hitch a ride with someone else going to church (so that he could meet our friend, recruit blessing helpers, and generally assure the people in charge that, yes, we were blessing our baby and, yes, B would be giving the closing address) and I turned around to go home and get his talk, taking the baby with me to ensure that he wasn’t blessed without me being present.

I arrived at church after the meeting had started. B ran out to the car to grab the baby. As we ran through the parking lot, our poor, certainly bewildered or incredulous friend is holding the front door of the church open for us and calling out, “They just called your name!” So, as we race into the chapel we find it silent. Everyone sitting and waiting. The people involved in the blessing have already assembled at the front of the chapel and are just waiting for B (the blessor) and E (the blessee). There are no empty seats. Our friend ducks into a pew in the back and I duck into one close to the front while B races to get E out of his car seat at the front of the chapel. B is out of breath for the blessing and I don’t hear a word that is said. Our friend thanked us after the meeting for letting him “be part of your adventure.” Great.

So, it wasn’t the best Sunday. But at least there is a type of tortilla can hold. Tender mercy. Mexican food does this to people. T and the taquitos; B and the burritos. Me? I guess I’m no different. I’ve been dreaming about my birthday dinner at a certain Mexican restaurant for weeks. Only one day left now! Hopefully I can keep the baby alive…

http://picasaweb.google.com/lyndseyandbrett
or
http://picasaweb.google.com/lyndseyandbrett/EndOfJulyEverest#

Friday, July 24, 2009

"nEverest"

I spent the first five weeks of E’s life gushing that he was such a “good” baby. And he was. Wasn’t he everything we needed him to be, and so much that we had never even dreamed he would be (ie SUPER CUTE; truly, I continue to be shocked by how cute he is). He took it like a champ when we celebrated his three week old birthday by becoming homeless and taking up residence in Super8 and Holiday Inn Express. He traveled across the country and house hunted and ran errands for weeks. Of course, how could he put up much of a resistance? Even now he has no mobility, very limited purposeful movement, and has not yet learned to talk back. This was probably the best move of his life. And we’ll be able to test that theory by moving every June for three more years. Is moving with a three week old, one year old, two year old, or three year old best? Stay tuned for the answer.

When he was 5 weeks old, he and I traveled home to the Northwest. I seriously had the best time ever. E seemed to enjoy it as much as he enjoys everything else. However, it was on this vacation, the first time in his life when he was observed by people who unlike B and myself actually know something [read: ANYTHING] about babies, that I found out he is not exactly the typical definition of a “good” baby. Two days into the vacay, my dad observes, “He’s sort of high maintenance, isn’t he?” He is? I asked my mom what on earth he meant by this and she fessed up that E is not as “mellow” (thanks for breaking it softly, mom) as all of us were. Uhhhh…you mean, babies don’t normally fuss all day and most of the night? There are brand new babies that aren’t in a seemingly constant state of discomfort or malcontent? I really had no idea. Oh well, he fooled me into thinking he was a good baby and that’s what counts.

So THAT explains why I was given literature on colic at the pediatrician’s office. I thought colic was 6-hour stretches of purple-old-man-faced crying. E just fusses. And he never sleeps. Hyperalert or high needs they call it. With mild colic. Hyperalert babies “need more of everything—except sleep.” They cat nap. Which is exactly what he does three or more times a day. 15 to 45 minutes. Never more. So forget about catching up on sleep when he naps. They also need to be held a lot and really like [read: fuss less] when they are moving. Night time was probably typical baby fare, except for the nightly 4am fuss-fest. This is the colic part. Every night, no matter what schedule he was on, he would begin serious fussing at 4am and fuss for the next two and a half hours. No stopping it.

He’s also SUPER cute, super healthy, a great eater, and a super smiler. All the time he’s not fussing he’s smiling. Such a good baby. But, I have to admit, I was absolutely butt-kicked by the lack of sleep. I went 8 weeks with 4 to 5 hours of sleep a night, and I firmly believe that 5 hours is exponentially better than 4 hours. In any case, I shed tears at the thought of ever having another child. It is my philosophy that you can have no children, or two, or three, or how ever many more you want. But one? Naw. So, here I was, committed to do this again. I was so happy with this baby, but I did NOT want another.

So, finding out that it was possible to get a DIFFERENT sort of baby next time [wait…so kids are different from each other?] gave me hope. Then, week 8 was a breakthrough. The 4am fussies went away (they’ve only reappeared twice in the last week and a half). Also, he’s fussing less during the day. I now get 6 to 6.5 hours of sleep each night, and yes, it’s exponentially better than five!

Bring on number 2.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Come on, Dover!

So, for the two of you who are interested, the post below this one was written by Brett to explain the scoring of the Tuley Baby Guessing Contest 2009. I am now going to explain his scoring method in my own words and according to my understanding.

See, instead of running the scoring the way I suggested (a total of 100 points; a certain number of total points possible for each category; fewer points awarded the further from the actual value your guess is) Brett decided to conduct much of the scoring like a bookie at a horse race. It’s all about odds. For example, we asked and found out that 90% of all births at our hospital used epidurals for pain relief. So, if you guessed epidural and were right, you would be awarded fewer points for that correct answer than you would have been had you guessed natural and been right. So, how many points were “possible” in the “method of arrival” category? Well, we didn’t know ourselves until we knew what the right answer was.

Of course, the “method of arrival” was an all or nothing category. For weight, length, and date the horse race scoring method was again used, but this time every guess received was awarded some number of points (or fraction of a point, as was usually the case). We obtained a graph indicating the range and average weights/lengths at 37 through 42 weeks gestation; so Brett figured out how good your guesses were (based on expected values) and then ran them against the actual weight/length of the baby. The percentage of births occurring before the due date, on the due date, and after the due date were used in computing the points that should be awarded for each date.

Gender was simply all or nothing, but I demanded that the number of points assigned to this category be low enough that a person could still win without having to guess it correctly.

A brief caveat:
While Brett did the computing, I did the research for the “expected values” (a great way to occupy my time at the work desk). I must here admit my own misgivings about basing our “expected values” on the averages of the public at large. My family generally has large babies, has them early, and has them naturally. So, the guesses from my family members generally indicated larger weights, earlier dates, and natural delivery. I’ve felt bad about this possible “edge” from the start. But, in the end, my family did not produce the winning combination of guesses (although the second, third, and fourth placers were relations). In fact, the baby was not as early as the family trend would dictate and was a pound larger than the largest
guess, so the advantage of my family members was minimal.

Explanatory Note on Equations

[Note: there is also a cool graph (which is referred to in this write up) that will be included in this post at a later time. Also, the equations would not work in Blogspot, so L paraphrased them. Good luck deciphering the paraphrasing.]

Intention

My intention was to normalize the point values and adjust the point distribution for each category so that the expected value (Ex=[strange sign]Pxi*xi) for uniform random guesses within a reasonable guessing range for each category would be equal, and contestants would be rewarded proportionately greater for more accurate guesses. The difficulty for me was to define what is a reasonable range for each of the parameters, and how to shape the distribution. There were also various types of data among the different categories, some continuous and others discrete. The expected value for each category was 10 points.

Distribution Ranges
I relied on research L did on the internet to help define the relevant ranges. It was difficult to find satisfactory and matching statistics for all the categories so we used the process of best guestimation.
Discrete: The categories with discrete data types were: Gender; Method of delivery. Gender ranged from Male to Female. Any uncertainties were to be settled decisively by the doctor. Method of delivery could range widely. We limited the range to only those that were guessed by contestants and those suggested as possibilities on her website which all fit into five broad categories: C-section; Epidural; Forecepts; Vacuum; Natural.
Continuous: The categories with continuous data types were: Length; Weight; Time; Date. Admittedly "date" could be treated as a discrete data type, but it worked well with a continuous normal distribution and bins. The range we settled for length was 18-21.5 inches. Weight was 6 lbs 2 oz to 8 lbs 5 oz. Time was 0 to 24 hours. The range for dates was the range of the guesses from contestants: May 3 to May 24. These ranges do not include all the possibilities, but they set up a good range to bound point distributions.

Distribution Shapes
Discrete: Gender: the approximation was made that each gender is equally likely and therefore worth 10 points if correct. Method of Delivery: according to the data we were able to gather on P hospital and other general trends we calculated the probability of C-section = 20%, probability of Epidural = 57.6%; probability of forecepts = 6.4%; probability of vacuum = 8%; probability of natural = 8%. Using the expected value formula with the condition that Pxi * xi = Pxi+1 * xn. So, like horse betting or roulette, contestants win more points for guessing correctly a less likely outcome. The points were: Forecepts = 31.25; C-section = 10; Epidural = 3.47; Vacuum = 25; Natural = 25.
Continuous: I decided to use a normal curve for the base distribution. This is different from what many use, such as exponentially decaying point distributions, in that it has two ranges each side of the peak separated by an inflection point instead of a single range of rapidly decreasing values, were the penalty starts off very steep but slowly decreases or visa-versa. The first range starts with only slight point penalty as you deviate from the correct answer, but with increasing penalty as you get further, peaking at the inflection point. The second range has decreasing penalty as you get further away from the correct guess, however in this range the point values are already pretty low.
The height of the curve can be adjusted by a scaling factor so that when multiplied by a uniform guessing distribution the resultant expected value can be adjusted to zero.
The next adjustment that must be made to this shape comes from the previous heading title "range". By adjusting the ranges of each category (or equivalently adjusting the standard deviation) such that approximately 99% of the area under the normal curve fits within the defined guessing range it is hoped that "good" and "bad" guesses within each category carry equivalent penalties, making each category as important as the other.
Guesses were made into bins in order to calculate the area under the normal curve, for example if someone guessed May 18 the area would be calculated as that of the left tailed probability of 18.49999 minus the left tailed probability of 17.5.
The general form of the equation in excel is:
=(Scale Parameter) * (NORMDIST[(guess + (nealry one half of bin width) , (actual birth value) , (Assumed St Dev) , 1] - NORMDIST[(guess - (one half of the bin width) , (actual birth value) , (Assumed St Dev) , 1])
The scale parameters and standard deviations are on the spreadsheet for your perusal. Contact this blog's host with a special request to have it emailed if you are really a glutton for punishment.

Conclusion
I wasted many hours of my life coming up with a baby guessing contest that is convoluted and not significantly different or cooler than others, but it is our baby guessing contest and I don't plan to change the methodology. However, if you request a copy of the spreadsheet and can find error in my calculations, I may be glad to correct such an error.

Monday, July 20, 2009

de Colores

And now for another issue of “I would. Would you?”

There are few things that interest me more than home improvements/decorating. Of course, it’s just the thought and sight of them—I’ve never really done any. But I love reading on the internet or in magazines about what could be done. Then, while we were living in the Holiday Inn Express I found the home improvement channel!!!! HGTV. I was in heaven. I watched it with or without the sound each time I had to nurse. I’ve never enjoyed nursing so much.

So, now here we are in our rented town home. I am allowed to paint, provided that I paint the walls back to white before we move. I was faced with this dilemma when we moved to Atlanta, and I decided NOT to paint, since we only had a 15-month contract. It would be a waste of time and money, I thought. We ended up staying in that apartment more than two years and I often regretted not painting it the way I wanted. And so, with that, I give you the pros and the cons this time:

Pro:
I could practice painting—like learning a new skill. Although I just have to paint over it in less than a year, I will have a little more experience when I go to paint my own house. Plus [provided that it looks good] it will look good! Cheap home improvement.
Con:
Painting will mean work for me now and, worse, work for me in a year when I’m getting ready to move and have a one-year-old running around. Why go through the trouble for such a short return?

So, I’ve decided to paint. Originally I had big plans. Paint lots of rooms! But I scaled back to just the baby’s room and a bath room (I even got the baby’s room taped up for painting). Now I have scaled back to just the half bath. It’s the smallest (and ugliest) room in the house—even the closets are bigger.

Now for the “I would. Would you?” portion of this post. (You may have thought it already happened. Alas, no.)

Color selection. I went to Lowes and picked out four triptych paint samples (meaning: four little cards that each has three similar shades of paint). They all “work” with the flooring and I know I don’t want to go with the mid- or light shade on each card. That narrows it down to the darkest four shades. I found the one that matches best: Ivory Brown. But then, I remembered HGTV. Have I learned nothing? Why match your floor exactly? Why live so monochromatically? I should choose the one that is the biggest stretch. Sure, it still matches the floor (it’s sort of multi-colored flooring), but it’s kind of orange. It’s the shade I first threw out. But now, thanks to my home decorating education, I know that THIS is the color I should probably be painting. So, the decision came down to the monochromatic color or the “stretch”/counterintuitive option. It was at this point that I really noticed the color names: Prairie Dance, Lovely Buff, Cake Batter, Sahara Sands, Woodlawn Lace, Woodrow Wilson Putty. Maybe these names will contain the answer... And what were the names for the two colors I was choosing between?


Ivory Brown vs CORAL GABLE BILTMORE MEDITERRANEAN CARAMEL!

Decision made. Why didn’t I just look at the names to begin with? Seriously, who wants "Oatbran"?